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The state of AI and what’s next

The State of AI for 2023 report is out — Let's go over the top takeaways and check out 10 things they think will happen in 2024.

Retrospective 2023

1. GPT-4 still has the throne over all other LLMs

2. Most models are closed systems for security reasons (GPT4, Claude, PalM2), but MetaAI and a few others keep the open-source flame burning

3. Open-source is more vibrant than ever: in the last 30 days Llama models have been downloaded more than 32M times on Hugging Face

4. “Subjectivity” as a benchmark: Although there are many benchmarks (mostly academic) to evaluate these models, users often prefer to listen or follow their *own* subjective reasoning for their use-case

5. GPU demand skyrocketed: NVIDIA went right into the $1T market cap club and their chips are used 19x more in AI research than all the alternatives combined.

6. Big Tech led the investments in AI, and not VC firms: Microsoft invested in OpenAI, AWS in Anthropic, Google in Inflection.. etc.

7. ChatGPT is the fastest growing product on the planet. But latest research suggest that retention is very low for AI products

What’s next — 2024 predictions

Their predictions are accurate, and some are already coming true. We may include more predictions in future newsletters around multimodality and speech.

• Hollywood will incorporate GenAI for visual effects

• AI media company will be investigated for misuse in the 2024 elections

• AI agents will crush SOTA in a complex enviroment (e.g. AAA game)

• One major IPO listing for an AI company (e.g. Databricks)

• $1 billion+ spent to scale large language models

• Competition investigations around Microsoft/OpenAI deal

• Limited progress on global governance

• Banks will launch GPU debt funds to replace VC funding

• AI generated song breaks into the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10

• Large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquires an AI chip company (this might happen very soon!)

🚨 What else is going on

• Multi-modality with GPT-4V exposed new types of jailbreaks. It seems that the model can be fooled by hidden prompt injection in images, and it can actually *steal* your chat history.

• AI image detectors are used to discredit war images. But, these tools are not a good way to determine if an image is real or AI generated. They're not very explainable — they're black boxes that just come up with an answer from a limited training data, and can make a lot of mistakes on low res or new images.

• We now have a demo for DreamGaussian, an AI model that can make 3D objects in under 15 min — and it actually works really well.

📕 Resources

• ^{[interesting read]}  The half life of the AI stack

• ^{[useful resource]} ChatGPT system prompts

• ^[paper]  TimeGPT-1: The first model for time series, capable of accurate predictions for unseen datasets.

• ^{[interesting read]} How roboticists are thinking about Gen AI

🧰 Tools

• Unstock: Generate perfect SVG icons (I tried it, it’s like magic + free)

• CalAI: Open source AI scheduling assistant

• LegalNow: Draft and review contracts

• AIHomeDesign: Re-decor your rooms with AI

• FaceSwap: Swap your face on another photo (works really well!)

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